2.4.3.1 Availability and Demand

Since the end of the 1970s, with the adjustment of the State's policy, the nuclear industry has shifted its focus to serving the national economy, under the prerequisite that military use is guaranteed. The main civil use of uranium is nuclear power generation. However, in the early 1980s, the construction of nuclear power was still at an initial stage, and so readjustment was needed for the exploration and production of uranium to be reduced.

Entering the 1990s, China's nuclear power construction has made significant advances. Three nuclear power generating units in Qinshan and Dayawan went into operation successively in the first half of 1994, and have been running safely up to the present.

During 1996~1997, China stepped up its development of nuclear power generation. Consequently, 4 nuclear power plants and 8 reactors with a total installed capacity of 6,600 MW have either been built or prepared for construction.

The second-phase project of the Qinshan (Zhejiang Province) nuclear power station, which has an installed capacity of 2¡Á600 MW, started in June 1996 and planned for operation by 2002. The Ling'ao (Guangdong Province) nuclear power station with an installed capacity of 2¡Á1,000 MW started construction in May 1997 and planned to generate electricity by 2004. The third-phase project of the Qinshan station is a Sino-Canadian joint project, in which the Canadian side provides the 2¡Á700 MW heavy water reactors. It is planned to start construction in 1998 and go into operation by 2003. The Tianwan (Jiangsu Province) nuclear power station is a joint project by China and Russia. The first-phase project will begin in 1999, engaged in construction of the 2¡Á1,000 MW generating units of pressurized water reactors and planned for operation before 2005.

In addition, provinces (or region) such as Shandong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangxi and Hunan also plan to construct nuclear power stations early in the next century, and feasibility studies are underway.

Although China has not yet finalized its long- and middle-term plans for nuclear power construction, it is suggested by relevant departments and experts that it would be appropriate to build an installed nuclear capacity of 15,000 MW by 2010, i.e. about 3% of the State's total electric power capacity. It may be expected to reach 20,000 MW by 2015. In view of its proportion, nuclear power is only supplementary to the country's power development, but in terms of the total capacity of nuclear power, it will develop to a large scale.

2.4.3.2 Trends of Supply and Demand

In view of the national conditions, it has been an important policy of the Chinese Government to rely on domestic market for the supply of uranium. The demand of nuclear power generation for natural uranium will be limited in the near future. The three reactors in operation require some 380 t/a. This figure will increase to 1£¬560 t/a for 11 reactors by 2005, and may exceed 3£¬500 t/a by 2015 if the total installed capacity reach 20,000 MW by then.

The international market for uranium has shown a trend of integration since 1990. In the recent ten-odd years, China has engaged in cooperation with many countries in peaceful use of nuclear energy. Besides, China has been exporting natural uranium for a long time. All this promotes China's uranium industry to integrate with the world.

Investigations and analyses from multiple aspects show that major changes have begun to take place in the supply and demand of uranium in the world market. The world consumption of uranium for nuclear power generation will continue to grow, and the uranium in store will be used up in recent years. Therefore, the key to balance of demand and supply of uranium is increasing production, that is to say, we must expand the production of the existing and the newly-built plants and mines. The price for uranium in the world market may rise accordingly. Such a marketing situation will be most favorable for the development of China's uranium industry.

Taking into consideration the demand for uranium in the long-term development of nuclear power, China's uranium resources are short of supply in quantity and quality. But many geologists, based on analyses of geological conditions, believe that China has a great potential for exploration of uranium resources. The Bureau of Geology, CNNC, has stipulated the guiding principle for uranium prospecting as "focusing on sandstone while taking hard rocks into consideration". A large number of sandstone-type uranium deposits have been found in the neighboring countries northwest and north of China. The northern regions of China have similar geological conditions with these countries, and some basins, or even metallogenic districts, are connected with those of foreign countries. In recent years, we have found sandstone-type uranium deposits in the Yining basin, which can be mined by in-situ leaching. Favorable metallogenic conditions are also found in the Erlian and Songliao basins. Besides, there are great potentials in looking for uranium deposits of the granite and volcanic types, the high-grade ores of which have very good economic values. In short, China's resources and economic reserves of uranium will be able to guarantee the development of nuclear power generation if we enhance the geologic exploration in time.

In the coming years, China must gradually increase uranium production. The in-situ leaching method should be given priority, forming large-scale modernized production. The heap leaching technique should be popularized in accordance with the conditions of resources. Efforts should be made to strengthen mechanization of digging and automation of hydrometallurgy, improve technology and equipment, continue reform of management, save energy and reduce consumption, and raise efficiency and reduce cost. Besides, measures should be taken for safety and protection and environmental protection, so that uranium mining and milling will be a harmless industry, and the irradiation effect will be minimized to reach the advanced world level in a short time.

Entering the new 21st century, China's uranium industry is aiming at a continued development with advanced technology, well-trained workforce, large scale, good benefits and good sense of environmental protection, so as to satisfy the demand of the nuclear industry.