3.7.3.1 Availability and Consumption

Copper, being a fundamental raw material for national economic construction, is one of the four major varieties: Al, Cu, Pb and Zn, among 10 nonferrous metals, with its consumption being only next to that of aluminum. The gap between supply and demand of copper metal has been very large for a long time in China. According to statistics the cumulative consumption of copper since the founding of New China up to the end of 1990 was 13.26 million tons, while the cumulative output was 8.15 million tons (including copper produced from imported copper concentrates), so the rate of self-sufficiency was only as low as 61.5%.    

In recent 15 years the state of production and consumption has been as follows: during the "Sixth Five-Year Plan" period the annual average consumption of copper was 615,000 tons, while the annual average output of copper was 343,000 tons; the gap between them was 272,000 tons, suggesting a self-sufficiency rate of 55.8%. During the "Seventh Five-Year Plan" period, the annual average consumption of copper was 822,000 tons and the annual average output of copper was 508,600 tons (not including copper produced from imported crude copper), showing a gap of 313,000 tons and a self-sufficiency rate of 61.9%. During the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" period, the annual average consumption of copper was 994,000 tons, while the annual average output was only 753,000 tons, showing a gap of 241,000 tons and a self-sufficiency rate of 75.8%. The rate of self-sufficiency during the "Eighth Five-Year Plan" period increased to some extent mainly due to the increment of the miscellaneous copper output, which was 282,000 tons annually. Meanwhile, the annual average output of copper produced from ores, in fact, was 462,000 tons and the annual average output of copper produced from imported crude copper was 9,000 tons, so the self-sufficiency rate of mineral copper was as low as 46.5% only. In general, during the 15 years from the "Sixth Five-Year Plan" to the Eighth Five-Year Plan the copper self-sufficiency rate in China (including copper produced from ores and miscellaneous copper) was 65% on an average. The output of domestic copper produced from ores can only meet about 1/3 of the demand.

3.7.3.2 Trends

The national economic construction in China now is in the period of sustained, rapid and sound development, so the demand for copper is very large. Recently the departments concerned have made a prognosis on the demand for copper.

The former Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources and the China National Nonferrous Metals Industry Corporation predicted in the Report on the Degree of Guarantee of Major Nonferrous Metallic Mineral Resources for the National Economic Construction through 2010 presented to the Government in 1996 that the demands for copper would be 1.3 million tons in 2000, 1.45 million tons in 2005, and 1.70 million tons in 2010, with an annual average growth rate being 5.4%, 2.2% and 2.7% respectively.

To expound and determine the degree of guarantee of copper resources, the above appraisal report made a detailed analysis of the distribution of deposits, the grade of copper ores, the construction conditions by taking the 62.61 million tons of retained copper reserves estimated in 1992 as the basis. According to the report, the exploitable reserves are only 35.33 million tons, accounting for 56% of the country's total retained reserves. Among them, the reserves occupiedby operating mines are estimated at 27.80 million tons and the reserves of the deposits available for exploitation are 7.53 million tons. With these reserves plus the reserves of some large deposits located in remote areas or with low-grade ores, that are envisaged to be developed by 2010, the production capacity of mines in 2010 can reach 0.6~0.7 million tons of copper concentrate (in 1996 the total output of copper concentrate was 439,000 tons); with this output plus about 0.4~0.45 million tons of waste and miscellaneous copper collected, about 1.05~1.10 million tons of copper are expected to be produced from domestic raw materials in 2000. However in comparison with the demands for copper, predicted for 2000 and 2010 (1.3 and 1.7~1.8 million tons respectively), there will be still a large gap to be covered, with the self-sufficiency rate being only about 60%.

In terms of proportional allocation of mineral resources, it is required that two tons of copper metal reserves should be provided to produce one ton of copper metal. The Beijing Nonferrous Metallurgical Designing Institute-General predicted that the demand for copper in 1995 would be 1.05 million tons and that in 2000 would be 1.30 million tons, with an annual average growth rate being 4.30%. Thus, it is estimated that the cumulative demand for copper in 1996~2000 estimated will be 5.98 million tons and then 11.96 million tons of exploitable copper (metal) reserves will be needed according to the allocation ratio of 1:2. Provided the annual growth rate is 3.31% in 2001~2010, the cumulative demand for copper, estimated for these years will be 15.61 million tons, then 31.22 million tons of exploitable copper (metal) reserves will be required. In general, a total of 43.18 million tons of exploitable copper metal reserves will be needed from 1996~2010. According to the appraisal, the available reserves total up to 35.33 million tons, in which the exploitable copper metal reserves only account for 26.90 million tons. So, the exploitable copper metal reserves currently available (26.90 million tons) can guarantee only 62% of the required copper metal reserves (43.18 million tons).

In order to solve the problem of China's shortage in copper mineral resources, it is necessary, on one hand, to intensify the geological exploration activities for copper mineral resources and make full and rational utilization of currently available copper reserves and, on the other hand, to make use of overseas copper mineral resources under favorable conditions, so as to meet the requirement of China's economic construction.