3.8.3.1 Availability and Consumption

Lead and zinc are important raw materials for national economic development and have many uses. At present China can produce many lead and zinc commodities. There are a total of 88 smelting products and alloys, of which 13 are smelting products, 22 are chemicals and 53 are alloys. In addition, there are more than 100 lead materials. There are more than 83 zinc commodities, including 14 smelting products, 31 chemicals, 30 alloys and 15 zinc materials.

Before the 1970s, because supply fell short of demand, lead and zinc relied on import and a grand total of about 0.6 million tons of lead and about 1.65 million tons of zinc had been imported. Since the 1980s, under the guidance of the policy of developing the lead-zinc industry actively, China, through giving full play to the superiority of abundant lead and zinc resources of China, has expanded and newly built some mines and smelting plant, introduced and developed some advanced mining, dressing and metallurgical techniques, and renewed and upgrade technologies and equipment of mines and plants; as a result the lead and zinc production has increased rapidly. Since 1989 lead and zinc have been more than sufficient in China (Table 3.8.5) and exported to foreign countries.

Table 3.8.5 Lead and zinc production and consumption

After 1989 the situation of supply exceeding demand appeared on the domestic lead and zinc markets. The main reason was that large numbers of locally administered medium-sized and small mines and smelting plants went into operation or reached nominal capacity, resulting in a great increase of lead and zinc production. Thus the lead and zinc production not only met the demand of the domestic market but a number of lead and zinc products were also exported. In 1990~1996 China's export of lead products totaled 793,300 tons, of which the export in 1996 was 216,000 tons, ranking first in the export of the world's refined lead. From 1990 to 1996 the export of zinc ingots amounted to 959,400 tons, of which the export in 1996 was 209,800 tons, ranking third in the export of the world's zinc ingots.

In recent years the situation of supply exceeding demand on China's lead and zinc market has a tendency to be aggraved. For example, in 1993 the supply of refined lead was 413,600 tons (production 411,900 tons and export 1,700 tons), the demand was 388,800 tons (domestic consumption 304,900 tons and export 83,900 tons), and the increase in stock inventory by the end of the year was 24,800 tons. In 1993 the supply of zinc was860,400 tons (production 856,900 tons and import 3,500 tons), the demand was 723,800 tons (domestic consumption 530,000 tons and export 193,800 tons), and the stock inventory by the end of the year was 136,600 tons.

3.8.3.2 Trends

China's national economy is going through a period of sustained, rapid and sound development, in which period substantial amounts of lead and zinc metals and their materials are required. Many persons in the geological, mining and metallurgical communities hold the following view: as China has abundant lead and zinc resources and large dressing and smelting capacities but is in urgent need of copper resources, we should devote more efforts to the development of lead and zinc, and thus not only the domestic demand can be satisfied but also foreign currency can be earned through exports. Particularly, in China zinc is more abundant than lead, so more favorable conditions are available for developing the zinc industry.

Recently, departments concerned have estimated the demands for lead and zinc in the future. In 1995 the former Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources and the former China National Nonferrous Metals Industry Corporation submitted the Report of the Certification of the Guaranty Degree of China's Main Nonferrous Metallic Mineral Resources on the National Economy in 2010 to the State. According to the Beijing Metals Nonferrous Metallurgical Design and Research Institute, they used the sectoral consumption method, regression analysis and elastic coefficient method to estimate China's lead and zinc demands of the future, as shown in Table 3.8.6.

Table 3.8.6 Estimates of lead and zinc demands

In accordance with the estimates of the lead and zinc demands made by the Beijing Nonferrous Metals Metallurgical Design and Research Institute, the authors of the report have distributed the mineral resources. From 1996 to 2010 the cumulative demands for lead and zinc will be 5.675 million tons and 14.66 million respectively. According to that the minable reserves are distributed as follows: the production of one ton of lead and zinc metals calls for consumption of two tons of minable metal reserves, i.e. on the basis of 1:2 of reserve consumption 11.35 million tons of lead minable reserves and 29.32 million of zinc minable reserves are required during the period from 1996 to 2010. The available minable reserves are: lead, 10.87 million tons, and zinc, 49.96 million tons; therefore the lead and zinc resources required before 2010 can be guaranteed. The degree of guaranty of zinc is higher, and the lead supply can be essentially guaranteed. In addition there are significant quantities of category D reserves. If needed, minable reserves can be obtained by selecting better workable deposits for exploration and mining.

Among China's four major nonferrous metals aluminum, copper, lead and zinc, lead and zinc are the most potential. They have the following favorable conditions:

1) There are abundant lead and zinc mineral resources, which offer an enough resource guarantee on the development of the lead and zinc industry. In addition to 155.436 million tons of lead and zinc retained reserves (combined lead and zinc reserves), nine metallogenic provinces (zones) have great ore potentials. According to the estimates made by departments concerned, the lead and zinc resources of the nine metallogenic provinces (zones) may reach 37.92 million tons.

2) The lead and zinc markets are promising. According to analyses of many Chinese experts and departments concerned, the demand for lead will maintain a certain growth rate. They think that with the development of the automobile industry in China, the demand of batteries on lead will increase. In the cable-sheathing field, although there appears a tendency of substitution of paper lead-sheathed cables by plastic cables, lead is still used in sheathing high-tension, oil-filled paper cables. Therefore paper cables still have a market. An appreciable amount of lead metal and lead materials are also needed in the military, steel, light, building materials, electronics, printing, pharmaceutical, medical apparatus and instruments, radioactive radiation protection and antiseptic lead industries.

The zinc market will continue to be prosperous. First, the development of the automobile industry in China calls for large amounts of zinc-coated steel plates and diecasting zinc alloys. Second, the development of the construction, transportation, telecommunications and packing sectors and the electric appliance industry also requires considerable amounts of zinc-coated steel plates, wires and pipes, zinc-coasted structural elements and other zinc-containing materials. Third, the demand for dry batteries on the domestic market will continue to grow and with an increase in the varieties of dry batteries produced in China and improvement of their quality, the export market of batteries will rise. Fourth, with the development of the rubber, coating materials, plastic, enamel, pharmaceutical, printing, ink, building materials and papermaking industries, the demands for zinc oxide and lithopone will also grow steadily.

3) To develop the lead and zinc industries, mines are the foundation. Although some mines have entered the late stage of production, some have closed and some are about to close, there are still other mines replacing them. The construction of large mines for two superlarge lead-zinc deposits, the Changba deposit in Gansu and the Jinding deposit in Yunnan, expansion of some large and medium-sized mines and upgrading of mining and dressing technologies for promoting mining and dressing capacities of mines during the Eighth and Ninth Five-Year Plan periods have offered a reliable guarantee of providing raw mineral materials needed for lead and zinc smelting and production; the raw mineral materials not only can meet the domestic demand but a part of lead and zinc concentrates can be exported and processed into products.

To sum up, the development of the automobile, transportation, construction, telecommunications and other industries is a main impetus to maintaining the strong momentum of the lead and zinc demands. It is estimated that the first decade of the next century will see a good opportunity for the development of China's lead and zinc industries. This opportunity cannot be let to slip; it may never come again. So long as we increase production appropriately, speed up adjustment of the structure of products, develop new products energetically, raise product quality, strengthen competition capacities and further open up the domestic and foreign markets, China's lead and zinc industries will have a vast prospect.