It is highly likely that China will adjust the export tax rebate on aluminium products and aluminium alloy products on July 1, a government source told Interfax today.

The Chinese government will reduce the export tax rebate on some aluminium products and some aluminium alloy products from a current level of between 8% and 13% to between 0% and 5% on July 1.

According to the source, who wished to remain anonymous, the export tax rebate will be canceled for aluminium bars, rods and profiles, and aluminium alloy bars, rods and profiles, while the rebate on aluminium plate and strip will be reduced to 5%. 

The current aluminium rod, bar and profile, and aluminium alloy rod, bar and profile export tax rebates were reduced in September last year to 11% in order to cool down exports.

Liu Defei, a Beijing Antaike Information Co. Ltd. analyst, commented that although the tax rebate reduction would affect China's aluminium product exports in the short term, long-term export volumes would not be significantly affected due to the oversupply of aluminium and aluminium products in the domestic market.

"The Chinese government has long been planning to restrain aluminium product exports through an export tax rebate adjustment, especially as 60% of last year's aluminium exports consisted of aluminium bars, rods and profiles, and aluminium alloy bars, rods and profiles." Liu said.

China exported 196,710 tonnes of aluminium products in April, up 28.6% from the previous month. Exports surged 95.6% to 605,522 tonnes in the first four months of the year, according to statistics released by the General Customs Administration last Tuesday.

However, the export tax rebate on aluminium coils will probably stay at the current level of between 11% and 13% for the near future.

"The export tax rebate on under 2-millimeter thick aluminium foil will probably remain at the current 13% level. Despite further reductions in the export tax rebate, our exports won't be affected too much as long as there are profits to be made on the international market. What's more, despite the narrow domestic market, some foil products can also be sold at home," a Yunnan Xinmeilu Aluminum Foil Co. Ltd. official, surnamed Zhou, told Interfax. 

Aluminium futures settled lower at RMB 19,470 (US$2,553) in a wide range amid market concerns that China might cancel tax rebates on aluminum-product exports on July 1.

"This has hampered market confidence, but it is a good new for overseas market," said Lu.