China's electrolytic aluminum output is hardly to grow in 2009 due to weak demand and surplus production capacity, said Wang Feihong, a senior analyst with a famous non-ferrous metals research institute Antaike Aluminum at China Mining 2008.

Despite a little drop in production cost recently, the price is unlikely to rebound, but will maintain at a low level, added Wang.

Wang made unoptimistic predication over electrolytic aluminum market upon its plummeting price this year.

According to his forecast, China's electrolytic aluminum output this year will rise about 10 percent year on year to reach 13.9 million tons, and production capacity will grow by 3 million tons.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum has gone downward turn. Statistics show the surplus of domestic electrolytic aluminum amounted to more than 0.2 million tons in the third quarter.

The price of electrolytic aluminum next year would nosedive further by 20 percent from this year, said Wang. "If domestic electrolytic aluminum get zero growth in 2009, the domestic market can reach a balance," added Wang.

As China's output and consumption of electrolytic aluminum account for more than 30 percent of the world total, stability of China's aluminum market will also promote balance of the global market, said Wang.